Mobile industry to add 1bn unique subscribers by 2020

Almost three-quarters of the world’s population will be connected to a mobile network by 2020, according to the latest study^[1] from GSMA Intelligence.

The research arm of the GSMA released a report indicating an additional one billion people will become mobile subscribers over the next five years, bringing the total to 5.6 billion — equivalent to 72% of the expected global population by this point.

However, unique subscriber growth is expected to slow over this period compared to previous years as many markets approach saturation point, highlighting the need for mobile operators to unlock new growth opportunities in areas such as 5G, M2M and the IoT.

“We are already seeing operators in highly penetrated developed markets seeking to offset slowing unique subscriber growth by evolving and broadening business models and investing in new network technologies, services and digital ecosystems,” said Hyunmi Yang, chief strategy officer at the GSMA.

“As new services continue to develop on mobile platforms, operators worldwide must ensure that they capitalise on the opportunities presented by the vast and growing ecosystem that nearly universal global mobile connectivity has created.”

Between 2010 and 2015, rapid subscriber growth was seen with around 1.4 billion new subscribers; however, many economically developed regions, such as Europe and Asia Pacific (ie, South Korea, Japan and Australia) are now at the point where future subscriber growth opportunities are limited.

The world’s two largest mobile markets — China and India — are forecast to account for 45% of the subscriber increase over the next five years, but even countries such as China and Brazil — the main engines of recent subscriber growth — could also be approaching saturation point.

GSMA said the subscriber growth opportunities that will exist over this period will largely involve connecting mainly rural, low-income populations, which may require collaboration between operators, governments and other ecosystem players to overcome the significant social and economic challenges in serving these communities.

The study also notes that emerging opportunities in areas such as M2M will allow operators to continue to expand the connection base without having to rely on new subscriber acquisition, since M2M connections are accounting for an increasing share of net additions in many developed markets.

GSMA said the development and rollout of 5G will further enable operators to play a growing role in the range of industries that are increasingly becoming part of the broader mobile ecosystem.

[1] The GSMA’s latest unique mobile subscriber statistics are based on the results of an extensive global consumer survey conducted by GSMA Intelligence in 2015. During this process, more than 50,000 representative individuals in more than 50 countries worldwide were surveyed on their mobile usage patterns. Non-surveyed markets were benchmarked against a number of comparable markets. The GSMA Intelligence report, ‘Moving beyond subscriber growth: Emerging opportunities as mobile adoption approaches saturation’, highlights detailed global subscriber trends and growth forecasts across the world. It is available to subscribers to the GSMA Intelligence service on request.

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