AFAC bushfire outlook for spring 2021

The Australian national council for fire and emergency services, AFAC, has released its bushfire seasonal outlook for the upcoming spring of 2021, with varied fire potential for locations across Australia.

The outlook presents above normal fire potential for conditions over south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales, driven by grass and crop growth in these areas. In Western Australia, the above normal fire potential in the north is driven by grass growth and dry soil in the area. Below normal fire potential is predicted across the ACT, New South Wales and Victoria as a result of vegetation still recovering from the 2019–20 bushfire season.

The outlook through until the end of spring suggests above average rainfall is likely over much of the country except western parts of Western Australia. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole driving the wetter outlooks is likely to end in November or early December, as is typical of its seasonal cycle.

While most of Australia shows normal bushfire potential during the spring outlook period, destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia. Fire potential can vary greatly, even at the smaller scale, between bordering states and territories. Each state and territory’s assessment considers different land use types and vegetation types. This in turn is influenced by different forecasts for temperature and rainfall over these regions.

The ‘Bushfire Seasonal Outlook’ for Spring 2021 was developed by AFAC, the Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, the NSW Rural Fire Service, ACT Emergency Services Agency, ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Country Fire Authority, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Victoria, Tasmania Fire Service, SA Country Fire Service, Department of Fire and Emergency Services and Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions WA, and Bushfires NT.