Are you ready for the brave new world?

I have spent most of this year discussing disruption and disruptive technologies. What I have learnt from my audiences is a large disconnect. What Google, IBM, Microsoft and others are working towards for 2030, people are not expecting until 2050+.

So what will the application of deep learning computing, quantum computers, robotics, 3D printing, IoT and so on have on the radiocommunications industry? The expectations and warnings from the leading engineers, economists and social scientists are as follows:

1. 80% of Fortune 1000 companies will not exist in 2030.
2. 85% of radio system/network design work will be fully autonomous — done by computers. The user will only need to provide the computer with requirements and constraints.
3. 90% of installation and construction work will be fully autonomous, with a robotic workforce, delivering flawless workmanship at ≤25% the cost.
4. Clients will be able to print fully functional radios, on-site, in under 24 hours, at 1-2% current market prices. Radios will be sold as a CAD/CAM file. This will enable an order-of-magnitude increase of ‘radio-manufacturing’ companies in the global market.
5. Radio standards/protocols will be aaS. Radios will be able to operate any waveform, at any time. Standards will be an app. They will be able to conduct communications across multiple waveforms simultaneously.
6. NGARA technology will be a consumer product.
7. Narrowband communications will shrink to 1% of current market size. Voice-only, low-speed data will have a very niche market/client base.

What normally follows these discussion points, after justification, is a combination of denial, disbelief, quackery or “this is next century technology”.

Ray Kurzweil (director of engineering at Google) prepared the Law of Accelerating Returns. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The ‘returns’, such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.”

I assume the question rattling around your mind is, how should I prepare for these disruptions? To be honest, I am still trying to work this out myself. You will not be able to escape it — not even by age or retiring; our generation will be the first generation that will extend our life expectancy during our lifetime. And this will not be by a decade or so; it will be by a century or so.

To navigate through these disruptions, you will need to learn and develop your knowledge and skills. I will offer you my insight on what you should aim do in the next 10 years:

1. Get a Bachelor of Engineering, with a strong computer systems component.
2. Learn programming. This is the ‘second’ language that will be taught to school children.
3. Strengthen your professional network.
4. Find some great mentors outside your professional/typical circle. Learn.

My only intent is to warn you of what is coming. It is up to you to prepare.

Lawrence McKenna is the Telecommunications Section Manager, WGE; the Deputy Chair, Engineers Australia VicITEE; and Director, BICSI South Pacific. He is a member of Standards Australia (Standards development) CT-001 (Communications Cabling), CT-002 (Broadcasting and related services), the ITU-T SG5 working group and the ITU-R ARSG-5 working group.